I kēia mau lā, nui nā huahana kemika ma Kina i ʻike i kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka piʻi ʻana, me kekahi mau huahana i ʻike i ka piʻi ʻana ma mua o 10%.He hoʻoponopono hoʻopaʻi kēia ma hope o ka emi ʻana o ka huina o kahi kokoke i hoʻokahi makahiki i ka wā mua, a ʻaʻole i hoʻoponopono i ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa o ka emi ʻana o ka mākeke.I ka wā e hiki mai ana, e mau ana ka mākeke huahana kemika Kina no ka manawa lōʻihi.
Hoʻohana ʻo Octanol i ka waikawa acrylic a me ke kinoea synthesis e like me nā mea maka, vanadium ma ke ʻano he catalyst e hana ai i ka butyraldehyde hui pū ʻia, ma o ka n-butyraldehyde a me Isobutyraldehyde e hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻia e loaʻa ai ka n-butyraldehyde a me isobutyraldehyde, a laila loaʻa ka huahana octanol ma o ka shrinkage hydrogenation, distillation, distillation. a me nā hana ʻē aʻe.Hoʻohana nui ʻia ka downstream ma ke kahua o nā plasticizers, e like me dioctyl terephthalate, dioctyl Phthalic acid, isooctyl acrylate, etc. TOTM / DOA a me nā māla ʻē aʻe.
He kiʻekiʻe ka nānā ʻana o ka mākeke Kina i ka octanol.Ma kekahiʻaoʻao,ʻo ka hanaʻana o ka octanol e hui pū me ka hanaʻana i nā huahana e like me ka butanol, kahi o nā huahana a he nui ka hopena o ka mākeke;Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ma ke ʻano he huahana koʻikoʻi o nā plasticizers, he hopena pololei ia i ka mākeke mea kūʻai aku.
I ka makahiki i hala iho nei, ua loaʻa i ka mākeke octanol Kina ka nui o ke kumukūʻai kūʻai, mai ka 8650 yuan / ton a hiki i 10750 yuan / ton, me ka laulā o 24.3%.Ma Iune 9, 2023, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa loa he 8650 yuan/ton, a ʻo ke kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe loa he 10750 yuan/ton ma Pepeluali 3, 2023.
I ka makahiki i hala iho nei, ua loli nui ke kumukūʻai o ka octanol, akā ʻo ka amplitude kiʻekiʻe he 24% wale nō, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka emi ʻana o ka mākeke mainstream.Eia kekahi, ʻo ke kumukūʻai maʻamau i ka makahiki i hala aku nei he 9500 yuan / ton, a i kēia manawa ua ʻoi aku ka mākeke ma mua o ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau, e hōʻike ana ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka hana holoʻokoʻa o ka mākeke ma mua o ka pae awelika i ka makahiki i hala.
Kiʻi 1: Kūʻai Kūʻai ʻo Octanol Market ma Kina i ka makahiki i hala (Unit: RMB/ton)

I kēia manawa, ma muli o ke kumukūʻai mākeke ikaika o ka octanol, ua hōʻoia ʻia ka loaʻa kālā o ka octanol ma kahi kiʻekiʻe.Wahi a ke kumu kūʻai no ka propylene, ua mālama ka mākeke octanol Kina i ka palena waiwai kiʻekiʻe i ka makahiki i hala.ʻO ka awelika o ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana mākeke octanol Kina he 29%, me ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā ma kahi o 40% a me ka palena liʻiliʻi loa o 17%, mai Malaki 2022 a Iune 2023.
Hiki ke ʻike ʻia ʻoiai ua emi nā kumukūʻai o ka mākeke, aia nō ka hana octanol ma kahi kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe.Hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā huahana ʻē aʻe, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka loaʻa kālā o ka hana octanol ma Kina ma mua o ka pae awelika o nā huahana kemika nui.
Kiʻi 2: Nā hoʻololi waiwai o Octanol ma Kina i ka makahiki i hala (Unit: RMB/ton)

ʻO nā kumu o ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe o ka loaʻa kālā octanol penei:
ʻO ka mea mua, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka ma mua o ka octanol.Wahi a nā helu, ua emi iho ka propylene ma Kina e 14.9% mai ʻOkakopa 2022 a Iune 2023, aʻo nā kumukūʻai octanol i hoʻonui ʻia e 0.08%.No laila, ʻo ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka ua alakaʻi i ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā no ka octanol, ʻo ia hoʻi ke kumu nui e hōʻoia ai i ke kiʻekiʻe o ka waiwai octanol.
Mai ka makahiki 2009 a hiki i ka 2023, ua hōʻike ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka propylene a me ka octanol ma Kina i ke ʻano maʻamau, akā ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke octanol a he ʻano conservative ka volatility o ka mākeke propylene.Wahi a ka hōʻoia kūpono o ka ʻikepili, ʻo ka degere kūpono o ka fluctuations kumu kūʻai ma ka propylene a me ka octanol market he 68.8%, a aia kekahi pilina ma waena o nā mea ʻelua, akā nāwaliwali ka pilina.
Mai ka kiʻi ma lalo nei, hiki ke ʻike ʻia mai Ianuali 2009 a hiki i Dekemaba 2019, ʻo ke ʻano o ka fluctuation a me ka amplitude o propylene a me octanol i kūlike.Mai ka ʻikepili kūpono i kēia wā, ʻo ka kūpono ma waena o nā mea ʻelua ma kahi o 86%, e hōʻike ana i kahi pilina ikaika.Akā mai ka makahiki 2020, ua hoʻonui nui ʻia ka octanol, ʻokoʻa loa ia mai ke ʻano fluctuation o propylene, ʻo ia hoʻi ke kumu nui o ka emi ʻana o ke kūpono ma waena o nā mea ʻelua.
Mai 2009 a Iune 2023, ua loli ke kumu kūʻai o ka octanol a me propylene ma Kina (unit: RMB/ton)

ʻO ka lua, i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua kaupalena ʻia ka mana hana hou ma ka mākeke octanol ma Kina.Wahi a nā ʻikepili kūpono, mai ka makahiki 2017, ʻaʻohe mea hana octanol hou ma Kina, a ua paʻa mau ka mana hana holoʻokoʻa.Ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻokahi, pono ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka pālākiō octanol i ke komo ʻana i ka Forming gas, kahi e kaupalena ʻia ai nā ʻoihana hou.Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻo ka lohi o ka ulu ʻana o nā mākeke mea kūʻai aku i lalo i ka ʻaoʻao hoʻolako o ka mākeke octanol ʻaʻole i alakaʻi ʻia e ka noi.
Ma ka manaʻo ʻaʻole e piʻi aʻe ka mana o ka octanol o Kina, ua maʻalahi ka hāʻawi ʻana a me ke koi ʻana i ka mākeke octanol, a ʻaʻole koʻikoʻi nā paio mākeke, e kākoʻo pū ana i ka loaʻa kālā o ka mākeke octanol.
ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ka mākeke octanol mai ka makahiki 2009 a hiki i kēia manawa ua piʻi mai ka 4956 yuan/ton a i ka 17855 yuan/ton, me ka nui o ka hoʻololi ʻana, e hōʻike ana i ka maopopo ʻole o nā kumukūʻai o ka octanol.Mai 2009 a Iune 2023, ʻo ke kumukūʻai maʻamau o ka octanol ma ka mākeke Kina mai 9300 yuan/ton a i 9800 yuan/ton.ʻO ka puka ʻana mai o kekahi mau wahi inflection i ka wā ma mua e hōʻike ana i ke kākoʻo a i ʻole ke kūʻē ʻana o nā kumukūʻai awelika octanol i nā loli makeke.
Ma Iune 2023, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau o ka octanol ma Kina he 9300 yuan i hoʻokahi ton, ʻo ia ka mea i loko o ka awelika kumu kūʻai o ka mākeke o nā makahiki he 13 i hala.ʻO ka helu haʻahaʻa o ke kumukūʻai he 5534 yuan/ton, a ʻo ka helu inflection he 9262 yuan/ton.ʻO ia hoʻi, inā hoʻomau ka emi ʻana o ke kumu kūʻai o ka octanol, ʻo ka helu haʻahaʻa paha ke kākoʻo no kēia ʻano iho.Me ka rebound a me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai, hiki i kāna kumu kūʻai awelika mōʻaukala o 9800 yuan/ton ke lilo i pae kūʻē i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.
Mai 2009 a 2023, ua loli ke kumukūʻai o ka octanol ma Kina (unit: RMB/ton)


I ka makahiki 2023, e hoʻohui ʻo Kina i kahi pūʻulu octanol hou, e uhaʻi i ka moʻolelo o nā mea octanol hou i nā makahiki i hala aku nei a manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui i ka lewa hype maikaʻi ʻole i ka mākeke octanol.Eia kekahi, i ka manaʻolana o ka nāwaliwali o ka wā lōʻihi i ka mākeke kemika, ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo nā kumukūʻai o ka octanol ma Kina e mau nāwaliwali no ka manawa lōʻihi, kahi e kau ai i kahi kaomi ma luna o ka loaʻa kālā ma kahi kiʻekiʻe.